米国の温暖化否定を概観する (7) 温暖化否定論に立つ米国人たち

Climate Gateが騒ぎになった後に行われた、温暖化についての米国の最新の世論調査(2009/12/3-6)の結果がある:
Ipsos/McClatchy Poll conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs. Dec. 3-6, 2009. N=1,120 adults nationwide. MoE +/- 2.9 (for all adults).

"You may have heard about the idea that the world's temperature may have been going up slowly over the past 100 years. What is your personal opinion on this? Do you think this has probably been happening, or do you think it probably has not been happening?

Probably Probably
Has Has Not Unsure
% % %
12/3-6/09 70 28 3

If "Probably has" (N=769):
"Do you believe that the earth is getting warmer mostly because of human activity such as burning fossil fuels, OR, mostly because of natural patterns in the earth's environment?"

Human Natural
Activity Patterns Unsure
% % %
12/3-6/09 61 34 5

[via pollingreport.com]

地球は温暖化していて、原因は人間の活動である ..... 43%
地球は温暖化していて、自然の変動である ............ 24%
地球は温暖化していて、原因はよくわからない ........ 3%
地球は温暖化していない ............................ 28%
よくわからない .................................... 3%


Washington PostのOn Faith BlogのPaul Kirbyは、あわせて、もう少し広い意味での福音主義キリスト教の影響を指摘する。
But fundamentalist Christians believe that nothing can happen if it is not God's will. Therefore, if climate change is real, it must be part of God's plan, and if it is part of God's plan, then who are we to oppose it? Those who try must by definition be working against God, and so they must be stopped. People who believe we are living in the "End Times," and who look forward to the "Rapture" at any minute, are hardly likely to see AGW as something we need to combat.



Many fundamentalist Christians conveniently believe God wants them to be rich and live lives of prosperity. Many of them believe that America is God's chosen nation. That means he wants Americans to drive gas-guzzling cars and squander the world's resources. It's a sign of their faith in him, and God will reward them for that.


[Paula Kirby: "Believers in denial" (2009/12/11) on On Faith / Washington Post]
「神の意志」を信じることで、温暖化を否定するのが福音主義キリスト教だというのが、Paula Kirbyの説である。

Gallup Poll. May 8-11, 2008. N=1,017 adults nationwide. MoE +/- 3.

"Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on the origin and development of human beings? (1) Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God guided this process. (2) Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God had no part in this process. (3) God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so." Options rotated 1-3, 3-1

(1) (2) (3) (4)
Guided God Had God Created in Other/
By God No Part Present Form Unsure
% % % %
5/ 8-11/08 36 14 44 5
5/10-13/07 38 14 43 4
5/ 8-11/06 36 13 46 5
11/04 38 13 45 4
2/01 37 12 45 5
8/99 40 9 47 4
11/97 39 10 44 7
6/93 35 11 47 7
1982 38 9 44 9

[via pollingreport.com]
このような福音主義キリスト教以外に、温暖化否定論を支持する動機として、Paul Krugmanは次のように述べている:
First, environmentalism is the ultimate “Mommy party” issue. Real men punish evildoers; they don’t adjust their lifestyles to protect the planet.
Second, climate change runs up against the anti-intellectual streak in America.
So they’re outraged, furious, at the notion that they have to listen to guys who talk in big words rather than sports metaphors.


[Paul Krugman: "Climate rage" (2009/12/08) on Krugman blog -- New York Times, 訳 by okemos]
これは少し違うかもしれない。たとえば、University of Wisconsinの科学史研究者で創造論の歴史も研究対象としているRon NumbersはPBSでのインタビューにおいて、創造論を支持する人々が実は科学が好きなのだと言っている:
MR. NUMBERS: To me, the struggle in the late 20th Century between creationists and evolutionists does not represent another battle between science and religion because rarely do creationists display hostility towards science. If you read their literature, you'll rarely come across an anti-scientific notion. They love science. They love what science can do. They hate the fact that science has been hijacked by agnostics and atheists to offer such speculative theories as organic evolution. So, they don't see themselves as being antagonistic to science any more than many of the advocates of evolution - those who see evolution as God's method of creation - view themselves as hostile to Christianity.


[Ron Numbers Interview on PBS]


しかし、そのような素朴な信仰がなくても、温暖化否定論を強く支持する動機が存在する。たとえば、インテリジェントデザインの本山たるDiscovery InstituteのシニアフェローであるWesley J. Smithは、環境保護主義を自分たちが奉じる人間例外主義に敵対するものとして対決する。
Once flora and fauna were elevated to the level of human importance, it didn’t take long to brand human exceptionalism as arrogant and harmful to nature. Identifying ourselves as the villains, in turn, opened the door to a demoralizing nihilism that likens humanity to a vermin infestation or a viral infection afflicting the planet.


[Wesley J. Smith: "Homo Sapiens, Get Lost" (2009/04/22)]

さらに、地球温暖化問題は神をなきものにしようとすものだとDiscovery InstituteのシニアフェローであるDavid Klinghofferは述べる:
As for the party who would make war on God, consider the implications of spiritualizing the environment, of equating God with nature, a favorite green theme. Writing in the journal First Things in 1997, Father Richard John Neuhaus put it well: "When all is God, there is no need for God." Which explains the affinity of secularism for environmental causes.

神との戦いをしようとする者たちについては、環境のスピリチュアル化の意味、すなわち自然を神と同一視する意味、好まれるグリーンのテーマの意味を考えればいい。1997年にFirst Things誌に、Richard John Neuhaus神父が書いた記事がそれをよく表している。「すべてが神なら、神の必要性はなくなる」これは、環境要因の世俗主義との親和性を説明する。

What we argue about when we argue about global warming probably in fact has little to do with the weather. It is not surprising that traditionally religious people would turn away from an environmental issue like global warming, especially when the science behind the theory remains ambiguous at best, and distrust a political party committed to panicking unreservedly about it.


[David Klinghoffer: "Of Al Gore, Global Warming and God" (2006/07/21)]



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