2009/12/18

米国の温暖化否定を概観する (5b) 温暖化否定シンクタンク

反環境保護と保守系シンクタンクの関係を調査した研究がある:

==>Jacques PJ, Dunlap RE, and Freeman F: "The organisation of denial: Conservative think tanks and environmental scepticism", Environmental Politics, 17:3, 349 ― 385, 2008 DOI: 10.1080/09644010802055576

保守系シンクタンクも常に生成消滅しているため、既に最新断面ではなくなっているが、概況はよくわかるので、まず、このJacques[2008]を見ていくことにする。

Jacques[2008]が調査対象とした保守系シンクタンク(CTT: Conservative Think Tank)は、Heritage Foundationのリストに掲載されているものすべて:
The second part of our analysis examines CTT positions on environmental issues. In order to systematically select CTTs, we used the Heritage Foundation’s website. Arguably the pre-eminent CTT (Allen 1992), the Heritage Foundation is committed to fostering the conservative cause. One way Heritage does this is via the Internet, where it posts lists of conservative policy experts and 561 organisations (www.policyexperts.org). The inclusion of a think tank on the Heritage Foundation’s website establishes its conservative credentials and provides face validity for our study population. Content validity of the database is indicated by the fact that all of the organisations identified by McCright and Dunlap (2000; 2003) were found on the Heritage list.
なお、彼らが調査した時点では581だったが、現在は719である。それらのうち、環境問題を扱っている50がAppendixに掲載されている。これを整理すると以下のようになる:

Environmental scepticism espoused
(環境懐疑論を支持するか)
Yes No
USA 40 4
Canada 1 1
Belgium 1 0
France 1 0
UK 1 0
Sweden 1 0
環境問題を扱う保守系シンクタンク50のうち45が懐疑論の立場にある。

そして、Jacques[2008]が調べた環境懐疑論な出版物141のうち、保守系シンクタンクが関与したものと、そうでないものは以下のようになっていた:
Table 1. Think tank affiliations of environmentally sceptical books.

Books with No conservative
Conservative think think tank Total
Country tank associations associations books
-----------------------------------------------------------------
USA 101 9 110
UK 19 1 20
Australia 2 0 2
Canada 1 1 2
Denmark 1 0 1
France 1 0 1
Germany 1 0 1
Netherlands 1 0 1
New Zealand 1 0 1
South Africa 1 0 1
Sweden 1 0 1
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Totals 130 11 141
温暖化否定論を含む環境懐疑な本の大半は保守系シンクタンクが関連している。しかも大半が米国。そして出版時期は1990年代から増大:
Table 2. Trends in publication of environmentally sceptical books: 1970–2005.

Country 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000–2005
---------------------------------------------
USA 5 13 56 36
UK 1 0 13 6
Australia 0 1 0 1
Canada 0 0 1 1
Denmark 0 0 0 1
France 0 0 0 1
Germany 0 0 1 0
Netherlands 0 0 0 1
New Zealand 0 0 0 1
South Africa 0 0 0 1
Sweden 0 0 1 0
---------------------------------------------
Totals 6 14 72 49
これについて、Jacques[2008]は次のように書いている:
Our analyses of the sceptical literature and CTTs indicate an unambiguous linkage between the two. Over 92 per cent of environmentally sceptical books are linked to conservative think tanks, and 90 per cent of conservative think tanks interested in environmental issues espouse scepticism. Environmental scepticism began in the US, is strongest in the US, and exploded after the end of the Cold War and the emergence of global environmental concern stimulated by the 1992 Earth Summit.

環境懐疑論出版物と保守系シンクタンクについての我々の分析は、これらの関係が明瞭であることを示している、92%以上の環境懐疑論な本は保守系シンクタンクと関連しており、[環境問題に関心のある]保守系シンクタンクの90%が懐疑論に関心がある。環境懐疑主義は米国で始まり、米国で最も強く、冷戦が終結し、地球サミット1992によって地球環境問題への関心が高まった頃に拡大している。
とはいえ、これらの保守系シンクタンクに環境分野の科学者が所属したり、フェローとして関係していることはほとんどない:
This has been a particularly notable accomplishment in the realm of scientific and environmental issues because CTTs are populated primarily by economists, policy analysts and legal scholars rather than natural scientists (Fischer 1991); the George C. Marshall Institute is an exception (Lahsen 2005).

The lack of in-house scientific expertise helps explain why CTTs have been quick to form relationships with the small number of academic scientists who support their views, as in the case of ‘climate sceptics’ (Lahsen 2005; McCright and Dunlap 2003).

Fischer, Frank, 1991. American think tanks: Policy elites and the politicization of expertise. Governance, 4, 332–353.
Lahsen, Myanna, 2005. Technocracy, democracy, and US climate politics: The need for demarcations
McCright, Aaron and Dunlap, Riley, 2000. Challenging global warming as a social problem: An analysis of the conservative movement’s counter claims. Social Problems, 47, 499–522.
理系のPhD取得者どころか、理系スタッフすら稀な状況がある。Jacques[2008]が特にアクティブだと指摘する8つの保守系シンクタンクのうち、現役戦力を持つのはGeorge C. Marshall Instituteだけである。
[Dr. Sallie Baliunas on George C. Marshall Institute]

Sallie Baliunas is an astrophysicist formerly affiliated with the Mount Wilson Institute. Her awards include the Newton Lacey Pierce Prize by the American Astronomical Society, the Petr Beckman Award for Scientific Freedom and the Bok Prize from Harvard University. In 1991 Discover magazine profiled her as one of America's outstanding women scientists.

[ on George C. Marshall Institute]

Willie Soon is a physicist at the Solar and Stellar Physics Division of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and an astronomer at the Mount Wilson Observatory.
このうちDr. Sallie Baliunasはスタッフだが、Dr. Willie Soonは外部からのWriterである。しかも、二人とも大気圏内ではなく、恒星物理方面の研究者。

温暖化否定論支持とDDT擁護を主たるミッションとしているJunkscience.comの主宰者Junkman Milloyは健康科学の修士で、学位は法律:
[Steven Milloy on Junkscience.com]

Mr. Milloy holds a B.A. in Natural Sciences from the Johns Hopkins University, a Master of Health Sciences in Biostatistics from the Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health, a Juris Doctorate from the University of Baltimore, and a Master of Laws from the Georgetown University Law Center
この他、Weidenbaum CenterCompetitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT) などには、理系PhD取得者は見当たらない。

で、結局のところ、残るは、Dr. S Fred SingerのThe Science and Environmental Policy Projectのみ。
[http://www.sepp.org/about%20sepp/bios/singer/biosfs.html">S. Fred Singer, Ph.D. on The Science and Environmental Policy Project]

Now President of The Science & Environmental Policy Project, a non-profit policy research group he founded in 1990, Singer is also distinguished professor emeritus of environmental science at the University of Virginia. His previous government and academic positions include Chief Scientist, U.S. Department of Transportation (1987- 89); Deputy Assistant Administrator for Policy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1970-71); Deputy Assistant Secretary for Water Quality and Research, U.S. Department of the Interior (1967- 70); founding Dean of the School of Environmental and Planetary Sciences, University of Miami (1964-67); first Director of the National Weather Satellite Service (1962-64); and Director of the Center for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Maryland (1953-62).
網羅的に温暖化否定論のネタを提供できるのはDr. S Fred Singerをおいて他にない。

==>米国の温暖化否定を概観する (5) 温暖化否定論の立場をとる科学者たち(2009/12/13)

研究戦力としては、わびしすぎる否定論勢力だが、宣伝としては成功しているとJacques[2008]は言う:
Given the success of CTTs in promoting environmental scepticism, particularly obvious in the case of climate change (Antilla 2005; Boykoff and Boykoff 2004; McCright and Dunlap 2003; Mooney 2007), it seems reasonable to conclude that the CTT-based countermovement has contributed to the decline of US support for environmental protection in recent decades. The ability of CTTs to influence environmental policy replicates their accomplishments in other policy domains (Covington 1997; Callahan 1999; Krehely et al. 2004; Stefancic and Delgado 1996), and thus should come as no surprise.


Antilla, Liisa, 2005. Climate of scepticism: US newspaper coverage of climate change. Global Environmental Change, 15, 338–352.
Boykoff, Maxwell and Boykoff, Jules, 2004. Balance as bias: Global warming and the US prestige press. Global Environmental Change, 14, 125–136.
Callahan, David, 1999. $1 billion for ideas: Conservative think tanks in the 1990s. Washington, DC: National Committee for Responsive Philanthrophy.
Covington, Sally, 1997. Moving a public policy agenda: The strategic philanthropy of conservative foundations. Washington, DC: National Committee for Responsive Philanthropy.
Krehely, Jeff, House, Meaghan, and Kernan, Emily, 2004. Axis of ideology: Conservative foundations and public policy. Washington, DC: National Committee for Responsive Philanthropy.
McCright, Aaron and Dunlap, Riley, 2000. Challenging global warming as a social problem: An analysis of the conservative movement’s counter claims. Social Problems, 47, 499–522.
Mooney, Chris, 2007. An inconvenient assessment. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 63 (Nov/Dec), 40–47.
Stefancic, Jean and Delgado, Richard, 1996. No mercy: How conservative think tanks and foundations changed America’s social agenda. Philadelphia, PA: Temple University Press.
そして、これらの保守系シンクタンクは、裕福な保守系財団や企業の資金で運営されている:
The perceived threat to American values and interests posed by environmentalism helped justify the creation of a sustained anti-environmental counter-movement, institutionalised in a network of influential CTTs funded by wealthy conservative foundations and corporations (Austin 2002).

Austin, Andrew and Phoenix, Laurel, 2005. The neoconservative assault on the earth: The environmental imperialism of the Bush administration. Capitalism, Nature, Socialism, 16 (2), 25–44.
実態として、温暖化否定を含む環境保護否定の論争として(本などの形で)聞こえているものは、科学の世界ではなく、ほとんど理系PhD取得者すら存在しない保守系シンクタンクの世界からのもの。そして、その大半は米国の保守系シンクタンクである。彼らは資金を求めて、オゾン層破壊否定論(Dr. Sallie Baliunas, Dr S Fred Singer)や副流煙問題(Steven Milloy)など時のネタを渡り歩いている。




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