Leon Festingerは、1954年12月21日に世界が滅ぶと信じたカルトを観察し、予言の破綻によって、カルトが信念をむしろ強化することを見出した。
How would people so emotionally invested in a belief system react, now that it had been soundly refuted? At first, the group struggled for an explanation. But then rationalization set in. A new message arrived, announcing that they'd all been spared at the last minute. Festinger summarized the extraterrestrials' new pronouncement: "The little group, sitting all night long, had spread so much light that God had saved the world from destruction." Their willingness to believe in the prophecy had saved Earth from the prophecy!

感情的に深く信じていたものが、完膚なきまでに論破されたとき、人々はどう反応するのか?まず、カルトは説明を求めて努力した。しかし、その後、合理化が起きた。新たなメッセージが到着し、最後の瞬間に彼らが予言を免れたことを知らされた。Festingerは地球外生命の新たな宣告を次ように要約した。「小さな集団が、一晩座って、あまりにも光を放っていたので、神が世界を破壊から救ったのだ」 予言を信じたいという意欲が予言から地球を救ったのだと。
[Chris Mooney: "The Science of Why We Don't Believe Science" (2011/04/18) on Mother Jones, ]
Jamie L. Vernonによれば、同様の例を我々はまもなく観察できるらしい。
Yesterday, it was brought to my attention by Sam Harris that a group of Christian activists have predicted that the world will end on May 21, 2011. This is a ripe opportunity for those of us who are interested in the psychology of denial to collect data.

昨日、私はSam Harrisの記事で、とあるキリスト教の活動家グループが世界は2011年5月21日終わると予言していることを知った。これは集まったデータを否定する心理に興味がある人々には良い機会だ。

The group is a non-denominational Christian organization. They have erected billboards, handed out pamphlets and paid for ads on subway trains that claim “Judgment Day is coming.” Their leader is a not-so-youthful 89 year old radio host Harold Camping, who has a long history of doomsaying. In fact, Camping has once before been forced to face disconfirmation when his prediction that the end of days would come in 1994 (accompanied by a book of the same name) was proven false. In true cognitive dissonance form, Camping conveniently realized that he had overlooked the Book of Jeremiah. After recalculating, he concluded that May 21, 2011 was the actual date for the rapture.

このグループは特定宗派に属さないキリスト教団体である。彼らは看板を立て、パンフレットを配り、地下鉄に広告を出して、審判の日は近いと言っている。彼らの指導者は若くはない89歳のラジオホストHarold Campingである。彼は長きにわたって世界の滅びを語ってきた。事実、Harold Campingは1994年に世界がほろぶと予言して、はずれに直面した。正しい認知不協和の形で、Harold Campingはエレミヤ書を見落としていたことに気づいた。再計算して、2011年5月21日がラプチャーの日だと結論した。

Festinger’s theory predicts that, despite the warnings ahead of time, once the world is shown to still exist on May 22, we should expect Camping and his group to express increased fervor for their beliefs, likely accompanied by a new prediction.

Festingerの理論は、予言されたのに、2011年5月22日になっても世界が存在していたら、Harold Campingと彼のグループは新たな予言とともに自らの信条を強めると予測する。

[Jamie L. Vernon: "Cognitive Dissonance & the May 21st Apocalypse" (2011/05/12) on The Intersection]

ペトロの手紙二 / 3章 8節

創世記 / 7章 4節

In 2 Peter 3:8, which is quoted above, Holy God reminds us that one day is as 1,000 years. Therefore, with the correct understanding that the seven days referred to in Genesis 7:4 can be understood as 7,000 years, we learn that when God told Noah there were seven days to escape worldwide destruction, He was also telling the world there would be exactly 7,000 years (one day is as 1,000 years) to escape the wrath of God that would come when He destroys the world on Judgment Day. Because Holy Infinite God is all-knowing, He knows the end from the beginning. He knew how sinful the world would become.

Seven thousand years after 4990 B.C. (the year of the Flood) is the year 2011 A.D. (our calendar).

4990 + 2011 – 1 = 7,000

Amazingly, May 21, 2011 is the 17th day of the 2nd month of the Biblical calendar of our day. Remember, the flood waters also began on the 17th day of the 2nd month, in the year 4990 B.C.



4990 + 2011 -1 = 7000


[JudementDay on FamilyRadio]
かなり無理な論理だが、それは些細なこと。検証すべきは、Harold Campingが新たな予言を出して、信者たちが信念を強化するか否か。
posted by Kumicit at 2011/05/13 08:16 | Comment(0) | TrackBack(0) | Skeptic | このブログの読者になる | 更新情報をチェックする



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