世論調査の選択肢による差を見てみる

世論調査は質問の書き方次第で差異が簡単に出てしまうもの。

各種世論調査のまとめサイトPollingReport.comのScience and Natureの進化論関連について、この観点で、ちょっと見てみよう。

世論調査ごとの差異

まずは、ほぼ同じ質問だが、実施機関および月日が少し違うもの。いずれも、「進歩していない形態の生物から進歩したもので、神が導いた」と「...神は無関係」と「神は人間を現在の形態で1万年以内に創造した」という質問。わずかに"Human"と"Human Being"が違っているだけ。

"Human"な2007年3月28-29日の調査では

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. March 28-29, 2007. N=1,004 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.

Which one of the following statements come closest to your views about the origin and development of human beings?

1. Humans developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God guided this process. OR,
   
2. Humans developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God had no part in this process. OR,
   
3. God created humans pretty much in the present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so.
   

3/28-29/07 (1) 30% (2) 13% (3) 48%

一方、"Human being"な2006年5月8-11日だと：

Gallup Poll. May 8-11, 2006. N=1,002 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.

Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on the origin and development of human beings?

1. Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God guided this process.
   
2. Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God had no part in this process.
   
3. God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so.

5/8-11/06 (1) 36% (2) 13% (3) 46%

不明な人々が「神の導き」に動いたようにも見える。まあ誤差範囲±3ではあるけど。

「1万年以内」

選択肢はほぼ同じだが、「神は人間を現在の形態で1万年以内に創造した」と「神は人間を現在の形態で創造した」と2つのパターンでやってみると：

CBS News Poll. April 6-9, 2006. Adults nationwide.

Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on the origin of human beings? N=468

1. Human beings evolved from less advanced life forms over millions of years, and God did not directly guide this process.
   
2. Human beings evolved from less advanced life forms over millions of years, but God guided this process.
   
3. God created human beings in their present form.

4/6-9/06 (1) 17% (2) 23% (3) 53%

Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on the origin of human beings? N=431

1. Human beings evolved from less advanced life forms over millions of years, and God did not directly guide this process.
   
2. Human beings evolved from less advanced life forms over millions of years, but God guided this process.
   
3. God created human beings in their present form within the last ten thousand years.

4/6-9/06 (1) 17% (2) 30% (3) 44%

「1万年以内」をつけると、「神は人間を現在の形態で創造した」な人々が、「神の導き」に有意に動いたように見える。


創造のかわりに「聖書の記述」を使っても同様の傾向が見られる。「進化」か「聖書の記述」を選択させた後で、「聖書の記述」を選択した人々に、「6日間」か「宇宙の創造の神のプレゼンス」のどっちだと問うと：

NBC News Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). March 8-10, 2005. N=800 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.

Which do you think is more likely to actually be the explanation for the origin of human life on Earth:

1. evolution or
   
2. the biblical account of creation?

Asked of those who answered "Biblical account":

1. And by this do you mean that God created the world in six days and rested on the seventh as described in the Book of Genesis, or
   
2. that God was a divine presence in the formation of the universe?

Evolution 33%
Biblical account 57%
--- Created in six days 44%
--- Divine presence 13%

この調査では13%が字義通りの解釈ではない方を選択している。

まとめると

• 「1万年以内」をつけると、「現在の形態で創造された」から、〜10%程度脱落して、「神の導き」に流れる。
  
• 流れなかったのが"若い地球の創造論"で、流れ出たのが"古い地球の創造論"あたりを信じる人々と思われる。
  
• 従って、「神の導き(God guided)」には有神論的進化論・進歩的創造論が含まれ、選択肢によっては"古い地球の創造論"な人々も含まれると思われる。

「神の導き(God guided)」をなくすと...

逆に"God guided"をやめて、インテリジェントデザインを前面に押し出してみると:

Harris Poll. June 17-21, 2005. N=1,000 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.

Which of the following do you believe about how human beings came to be?

1. Human beings evolved from earlier species.
   
2. Human beings were created directly by God.
   
3. Human beings are so complex that they required a powerful force or intelligent being to help create them

(1) 22% (2) 64% (3) 10%

インテリジェントデザインな選択肢は嫌われて、「神の直接創造」に流れこんだもよう。
あるいは、"powerful force or intelligent being"という表現が、創造論ではなく、スピリチュアルを意味していると回答者に受け取られたか？明示的にインテリジェントデザインと問えば、答えは違うのかもしれないが、それはやってみないとわからない。