[Jeff Masters: "Comparing the 2012 drought to the Dust Bowl droughts of the 1930s" (2012/08/16) ]既に2012年7月から、1930年代の"Dust Bowl"の再来に怯える記事が...US drought might lead to food shortages and global unrest (2012/07/25)]
The great U.S. drought of 2012 remained about the same size and intensity over the past week, said NOAA in their weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, August 16. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by drought remained constant at 62%, and the area covered by severe or greater drought also remained constant at 46%. However, the area covered by the highest level of drought--exceptional--increased by 50%, from 4% to 6%. Large expansions of exceptional drought occurred over the heart of America's grain producing areas, in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Missouri. The new NOAA State of the Climate Drought report for July 2012 shows that the 2012 drought is 5th greatest in U.S. history, and the worst in 56 years.
先週も2012年の米国大旱魃の面積は同じままだとNOAAが、8月16日に発行された米国旱魃モニターが述べた。米国の旱魃の面積は62%のままで、強い旱魃あるいは深刻な旱魃の面積は46%のままである。しかし、例外的に深刻な旱魃の面積は4%から6%へと1.5倍になった。例外的な旱魃は、米国の穀物生産の中心たるカンザス・ネブラスカ・オクラホマ・ミズーリで起きている。2012年7月のNOAAのレポートでは、2012年の旱魃は米国史上5位、56年ぶりの大旱魃である。
The top five years for area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought:
米国のやや旱魃あるいは強い旱魃の面積上位5年
1) Jul 1934, 80%
2) Dec 1939, 60%
3) Jul 1954, 60%
4) Dec 1956, 58%
5) Jul 2012, 57%
The top five years for the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by severe or greater drought:
米国の強い旱魃あるいは深刻な旱魃の面積上位5年
1) Jul 1934, 63%
2) Sep 1954, 50%
3) Dec 1956, 46%
4) Aug 1936, 43%
5) Jul 2012, 38%
Rising food prices and global unrest might ensue from this month’s worst US drought since the 1934 Dust Bowl, with 64 per cent of the country desperately hoping for rain.
Predicted to last until October, the drought is foreseen to devastate US harvests, which would significantly affect global prices on corn, wheat and soybeans, of which America is the world’s largest exporter.
Worldprices for these foods have already reached record levels, and will continue to affect developing countries the most – especially those relying on agricultural imports.
[BRYAN WALSH: "Rising Temperatures and Drought Create Fears of a New Dust Bowl" (2012/07/05)]
Whether 2012 goes down as just an off year for corn crops or a truly historic disaster will depend on the next couple of weeks. The pollination phase is imminent for corn plants in much of the country. That’s the period when ears of kernel-filled corn should be appearing on the plants. But drought and extreme heat can wither and stress corn plants , stunting their growth − or even preventing pollination altogether.そして、National Geographicも2012年9月号で"New Dust Bowl"と題した記事を掲げている。
1930年代のDust bowlでは250万人が砂嵐に追われて移住を余儀なくされた。というより国内難民化したとでも言うべきかもしれない。旱魃といえば、このDust Bowlと絡めて報道される。
The New Dust Bowl
Texans have endured dry days before. They’ve seen lakes vanish and rangeland wither. But the drought of 2011 was gut-kicking even by Texas standards.
とはいえ、旱魃は深刻だが、今のところ、旱魃の面積は、まだ1930年代の状況に及んでいない。が、今後の推移はわからない。