東京電力管内の需要と東京の気温 (Update 2015/03/11)



posted by Kumicit at 2015/03/12 06:06 | Comment(2) | TrackBack(0) | Others | このブログの読者になる | 更新情報をチェックする



Gallup Pollが14年ぶりにワクチンに否定論についての世論調査を実施した

Extremely importantVery importantSomewhat importantNot very importantNot at all important

2/3がExtremely importantだったのが、54%に減少している。とはいえ、役に立たない(Not at all important)に流れたわけではない。

AdvantagesA great dealFair amountOnly a littleNothing at all
DisadvantagesA great dealFair amountOnly a littleNothing at all


Yes, a causeNo, not a causeUnsure

半数が「わからない (unsure)」と回答しているが、とにもかくにも、「ワクチンが自閉症を引き起こす」という主張を信じている者は6%と、かなりの少数派。

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Feb. 28-March 1, 2015, on the Gallup U.S. Daily survey, with a random sample of 1,015 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. ... Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 50% cellphone respondents and 50% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. ...

[In U.S., Percentage Saying Vaccines Are Vital Dips Slightly (2015/03/06) on Gallup Poll]

posted by Kumicit at 2015/03/11 23:27 | Comment(0) | TrackBack(0) | Quackery | このブログの読者になる | 更新情報をチェックする






Longitudinal studies provide some of the most convincing evidence. One such study looked at general intelligence in 10- and 11-year-old kids, and then re-studied those kids as adults two decades later−and found a clear connection between low intelligence and subsequent racism and sexism. Similarly, higher intelligence in childhood has been shown to predict less racism in adulthood. These analyses strongly suggest that low intelligence actually leads to hateful attitudes later on.


This is just a sampling of the accruing evidence on this point, all of which points to another puzzling question: Why? Why would verbal ability and math skills and other cognitive assets translate, over the years, into such hateful attitudes?


Dhont and Hodson believe they have an answer to this, again one based on rigorous abundant evidence. Their theory is that right-wing ideologies attract people with lower mental abilities because they minimize the complexity of the world. Right-wing ideologies offer well-structured and ordered views of society, views that preserve traditions and norms, so they are especially attractive to those who are threatened by change and want to avoid uncertainty and ambiguity. Conversely, smart people are more capable of grasping a world of nuance, fluidity and relativity.

Dhont and Hodsonは、厳密で十分な証拠に基づいて、答えを得たと考えている。右翼イデオロギーは世界の複雑さを最小化するので、低いメンタル能力の人々を惹き付けるというのが、彼らの理論である。右翼イデオロギーは、社会についての、よく構造化された、秩序だった見方、すなわち、伝統と規律を守る見方を提供する。なので、変化に脅かされ、不確実性と曖昧さを避けたい人々に魅力的である。逆に、スマートな人々は、ニュアンスや流動性や相対性の世界を把握する能力が高い。

The empirical evidence supports this link, too. Low intelligence and “low effort thinking” are strongly linked to right-wing attitudes, including authoritarianism and conservative politics. And again, there appears to be a demonstrable causal link: Studies have found, for example, that children with poor mental skills grow up to be strongly right-wing adults.


There is a final link in the chain of causality, according to Dhont and Hodson. Considerable evidence shows that conservative ideology predicts all sorts of prejudice−against ethnic and racial minorities, the disadvantaged, any outgroup. Indeed, right wingers are much more likely to see outgroups as a threat to traditional values and social order, resulting in heightened prejudice. Dhont and Hodson tested and confirmed this mediation model: Lower childhood intelligence clearly predicts right-wing ideology and attitude, which in turn predicts prejudice in adulthood.

Dhont and Hodsonによれば、因果関係の最後のリンクがある。保守イデオロギーが、エスニックや人種マイノリティや、貧困者や外集団に対する偏見の予測因子となることを示す相当な証拠がある。実際、右翼は外集団を伝統的価値と社会秩序への脅威と見なす傾向が、非常に強い。これが、偏見を強めている。Dhont and Hodsonは、この媒介モデルを検証・確認している。すなわち、子供の頃の低い知能は、右翼イデオロギー及び右翼態度の明瞭な予測因子となっていて、それは、大人になったときの、偏見の予測因子となっている。

[Wray Herbert: "Is Racism Just a Form of Stupidity?" (2014/08/20) on Association for psychological science]
このWray Herbertの記事は、Dhont and Hodson(2014)の一般向け紹介記事で、原論文のAbstractは以下の通り:
[Kristof Dhont and Gordon Hodson: "Does Lower Cognitive Ability Predict Greater Prejudice?", Current Directions in Psychological Science December 2014 vol. 23 no. 6 454-459, doi: 10.1177/0963721414549750]

Historically, leading scholars proposed a theoretical negative association between cognitive abilities and prejudice. Until recently, however, the field has been relatively silent on this topic, citing concerns with potential confounds (e.g., education levels). Instead, researchers focused on other individual-difference predictors of prejudice, including cognitive style, personality, negativity bias, and threat. Yet there exists a solid empirical paper trail demonstrating that lower cognitive abilities (e.g., abstract-reasoning skills and verbal, nonverbal, and general intelligence) predict greater prejudice. We discuss how the effects of lower cognitive ability on prejudice are explained (i.e., mediated) by greater endorsement of right-wing socially conservative attitudes. We conclude that the field will benefit from a recognition of, and open discussion about, differences in cognitive abilities between those lower versus higher in prejudice. To advance the scientific discussion, we propose the Cognitive Ability and Style to Evaluation model, which outlines the cognitive psychological underpinnings of ideological belief systems and prejudice.




posted by Kumicit at 2014/12/25 00:44 | Comment(0) | TrackBack(0) | ID: General | このブログの読者になる | 更新情報をチェックする



In a 1988 survey by Goldstein and colleagues, the researchers surveyed two physician provider groups: the American Holistic Medical Association (AHMA) -- a group of alternative medicine clinicians limited to physicians and medical students -- and three groups of family medicine (FM) physicians from California[14]. Their findings were quite telling. Where 45 percent of the AHMA sample felt spiritual healing had "much value for medical practice", only 9 percent of the FM sample had a similar view. In addition, 54 percent of the AHMA felt that spiritual healing had "some or much value and utilized it in [their] practice." In contrast, one in five, or 20 percent, of FM physicians had same view.


The researchers also surveyed he physicians' view concerning "laying on the hands." While 20 percent of AHMA physicians felt it was "much value for medical practice", only 3.5 percent of FM physicians held that view. Concerning whether they felt it to be of "some or much value" and utilized in [their] practice", 30 percent of the AHMA sample agreed, as opposed to about 6 percent of the FM group.


The researchers looked more closely at how religious or spiritual experiences had shaped the views of the two physician samples. Mean spirituality socres for the AHMA group were twice those of the FM group. Almost half of the AHMA physicians viewed spiritual factors to be "very important" in shaping their views of health, versus one-seventh of the FM group. Interestingly, physicians from the AHMA were more likely than those from the FM to have had spiritual or religious experiences (76 percent versus 40 percent) or in the last two years (32 percent versus 12 percent), or to have had "peak or transcent" experiences (72 percent versus 36 percent), While 60 percent of the AHMA physicians viewed religion or spirituality as "very important", only 18 percent of te California FM physicians felt similarly.

研究者は、宗教的あるいはスピリチュアルな経験が、2種の医師たちの見方の形成にどう影響したか、詳しく見た。 AHMAの回答者の平均のスピリチュアルスコアは、FMの2倍だった。AHMAのほぼ半数が、健康についての見方の形成に、スピリチュアルな要因が「非常に重要」だったと回答したが、FMでは1/7だった。AHMAの医師たちは、FMの医師たちに比べて、スピリチュアルあるいは宗教的経験が多く(76% vs 40%)、過去2年間でのスピリチュアルあるいは宗教的経験が多く(32% vs 12%)、絶頂あるいは超越経験をしたころが多かった(72% vs 36%)。60%のAHMA医師が宗教あるいはスピリチュアリティを「非常に重要:だと回答したが、カリフォルニアのFMでは18%だった。

[14] Michael S. Goldstein, Carol Sutherland, Dennis T. Jaffe, Josie Wilson: "Holistic physicians and family practitioners: Similarities, differences and implications for health policy",Social Science & Medicine, Volume 26, Issue 8, 1988, Pages 853–861

[ [David B. Larson and Susan S, Larson: "Spirituality in Clinical Care: A Brief Revice of Patient Desire, Physian Response, and Research Opportunities" in The Role of Complementary and Alternative Medicine: Accommodating Pluralism (edited by Daniel Callahan)]

By far the greatest reason given (51.7%) was "spiritual or religious experiences." [8]


[8] Goldstein MS, Jaffe DT, Sutherland C. Physicians at a holistic medical conference: Who and why? Health Values 10:3-13, Sept/Oct 1986.

[William T. Jarvis, Ph.D.: "Why Health Professionals Become Quacks"]
posted by Kumicit at 2014/12/16 09:00 | Comment(0) | TrackBack(0) | Quackery | このブログの読者になる | 更新情報をチェックする




これらは主としてDan M Kahan@Yaleの成果であるが、Chris Mooneyによって広く知られるようになっている。もちろん、Kahan教授自身も一般向けに記事も書いていて...
What people “believe” about evolution likewise has zero correlation with what people know about the scientific evidence on the natural history of human beings or about any other insight human beings have acquired by use of science’s signature methods of observation, measurement, and inference. “Belief” and “disbelief,” too, are expressions of identity.

But precisely because that’s what they are−precisely b/c free and reasoning people predictably, understandably use their reason to form and persist in positions that advance their stake in maintaining bonds with others who share their outlooks−the teaching of evolution is fraught. I’m not talking about the politics of teaching evolution; that’s fraught, too, of course. I’m talking about the challenge that a high school or college instructor faces in trying to make it possible for students who live in a world where positions on evolution express who they are to actually acquire knowledge and understanding of what it is science knows about the natural history of our species.



To their immense credit, science education researchers have used empirical methods to address this challenge. What they’ve discovered is that a student’s “disbelief” in evolution in fact poses no barrier whatsoever to his or her learning of how random mutation and genetic variance combine with natural selection to propel adaptive changes in the forms of living creatures, including humans.

After mastering this material, the students who said they “disbelieved” still say they “disbelieve” in evolution. That’s because what people say in response to the “do you believe in evolution” question doesn’t measure what they know; it measures who they are.

Indeed, the key to enabling disbelievers to learn the modern synthesis, this research shows, is to disentangle those two things−to make it plain to students that the point of the instruction isn’t to make them change their “beliefs but to impart knowledge; isn’t to make them into some other kind of person but to give them evidence along with the power of critical discernment essential to make of it what they will.




[Dan Kahan: "Why the science of science communication needs to go back to highschool (& college; punctuated with visits to museum & science film-making studio)" (2014/09/29) 0n The Cultural Cognition Project at Yale Law School]
posted by Kumicit at 2014/12/04 08:25 | Comment(0) | TrackBack(0) | Others | このブログの読者になる | 更新情報をチェックする